Little Vlad-e Putin, Age 9. Suck on this.
Honestly there is nothing the United States can do, in the short run, to save the Republic of Georgia.
Not with oil at $120/barrel.
The price matters because this is the source of Russia’s economic power. Take away its energy exports and it’s still Gorbachev’s economy, with Yeltsin’s management efficiency. Putin has done nothing but taken advantage of our own weakness.
It was our energy policy, our willingness to ignore alternatives so that the price would rise to $120/barrel, that has given Putin his leverage.
The whining from conservatives like Bill Kristol on this is little short of obscene. They created this problem. And now they hope to benefit from it by creating Russia as a Soviet-style enemy.
There is a better way to go.
Start with a reality check.
There is nothing we can do, in the short run, to prevent the Russian army from making Georgia a client state, either overthrowing its government and installing a puppet to their liking or just eating the thing whole.
This is just what the U.S. has done in Latin America for generations. We did it in Chile, in Guatamala, in Nicaragua. It’s what we’re doing in Columbia. We use our military when all else fails to install governments we like — never mind whether the people there like them. Suck on this is the message Uncle Sam has always sent to its near abroad.
But just because there is nothing you can do in the short run, this doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot you can do in the long run.
- This is why we need a War Against Oil. Want to hold up Putin as an evil-doer? Fine. But you fight him by dropping the price of energy to the floor, by removing his economic leverage. Every gallon of gas you save is $120 that’s not going into his pocket.
- Stand together with our allies. It’s far more important to unit within NATO than to rattle swords at this point. Unity in the North American alliance will do more to deter Russian aggression than anything else. Isolating Russia from Europe will keep it from swallowing Georgia whole.
- Make them pay. Russia has been fighting guerrilla wars in its "near-abroad" for years — in Chechnya, in Dagestan, now in Georgia. All the resistance to these occupiers is money and blood torn from Russian people and thrown down a rathole — just like the money and blood we’re wasting in Iraq.
The iron law of our time is you can’t occupy other nations against their will. Technologies like hand-held surface-to-air missiles guarantee it.
Whatcut the violence in Iraq were agreements with local leaders which created acceptance of the status quo — not "the surge." It was the "Sunni Awakening" (which neutralized Al Qaeda) and the "rapprochement with Iran" (which neutralized Al Sadr) which gave us this breathing space. Thinking it’s The Man Called Petreaus is playing the Russians’ game.
Stop playing the Russians’ game. Play our game. Economic flexibility, social flexibility, and a grander alliance will, over time, bend Russia to our will.
But not in the short run. George Bush lost Georgia just like he lost everything else in this godforsaken 8 years. Don’t forget that for a moment. Don’t forgive him, ever.
Or his friends.
