I don’t play pundit on TV, and I don’t really like to play one here.
But the handwriting is on the wall.
Obama is going to get the Edwards people.
Since John Edwards dropped out all the major Netroots organizations have fallen in line behind Obama. I just finished analyzing the blogs in all three Southern states which will hold primaries on Tuesday, and in every case the feeling among bloggers for Obama is palpable.
Perhaps even more telling is the feeling of those Democratic bloggers who don’t support Obama. A good example is Tennessee Guerilla Women, who is now making what I can only call desperate, and sometimes even contradictory, attacks on Obama. She’s doing that because she’s surrounded, by people she once thought were friends, and it’s a little frightening to her.
That’s the genuine feeling of impending defeat. On the TV you will never see it. On the Internet it’s right there.
Tennessee is filled with rumors about quiet endorsements for Obama. In Georgia, Obama has the polling lead and the support of everyone outside the party establishment, which was practically obliterated by the rise of Republicans. Even in Alabama, Obamamania seems to have given the state party a pulse, with even non-Republicans singing his praises. The win by a black Democrat in a legislative by-election, in a Republican district, is also helping.
Again, Clinton leads narrowly in the polls. But Obama has the momentum, and late momentum is a killer.
I don’t want to predict anything. That’s not my job. In fact, it should
be no one’s job. What’s significant is that all this comes from rooting
around the Internet, from the blogosphere, not from the TeeVee.
On the
TeeVee the Clinton-McCain duel is practically a done deal, and they’re
all ready to rumble.
On the Internet it’s different. (You won’t see images like the one to the left on TeeVee. It’s ridiculous, over-the-top, and thus really, really funny.)
On the Internet it’s a choice between a
programmatic practicality and a giddy unknown. After the fights of the
last 16 years, and the pain of the last 8, I think most Democrats are
going to choose giddy.
We’ll know soon if I’m right. Even if I am, it only means Obama does a little better Tuesday than Clinton does. Due to the vagaries of the party’s nomination process there is no way either candidate can really be knocked-out Tuesday, barring an immense win by one side or the other, which is unlikely to happen.
One bit of fair warning. In analyzing the Republican race in all three of the states mentioned, I found little enthusiasm for John McCain, and a grudging willingness by conservatives to vote for Mitt Romney. Take it all with a grain of salt.
Dana,
An interesting observation. My survey isn’t scientific, nor is the sample size that large. OK, the sample size sucks, but both my wife and I were Edwards supporters; we didn’t give a ton of money but we donated to his campaign. Now we’re split: I think I’ve come around to supporting Obama, my wife, she’ll vote for Clinton.
Now, I’m much more rabid about my being a Liberal. My wife, well, she just a touch less so to the left than I am. While watching a little national news the other night there was a piece with some highlights of the debate. She remarked to me that it just occurred to her that while she think Obama is presidential and looks and sounds great that she felt she HAD to vote for Clinton. It just hit her that “Holy smokes, there’s a woman running for president and that’s a pretty important thing.”
I don’t know how much identity politics are going to play into this but my suspicion is more than not. I expect the results to show a measured but not decided win for Clinton. I just think that there’s a part of this that can’t be polled but will show up once women get to the polls on Tuesday.
Dana,
An interesting observation. My survey isn’t scientific, nor is the sample size that large. OK, the sample size sucks, but both my wife and I were Edwards supporters; we didn’t give a ton of money but we donated to his campaign. Now we’re split: I think I’ve come around to supporting Obama, my wife, she’ll vote for Clinton.
Now, I’m much more rabid about my being a Liberal. My wife, well, she just a touch less so to the left than I am. While watching a little national news the other night there was a piece with some highlights of the debate. She remarked to me that it just occurred to her that while she think Obama is presidential and looks and sounds great that she felt she HAD to vote for Clinton. It just hit her that “Holy smokes, there’s a woman running for president and that’s a pretty important thing.”
I don’t know how much identity politics are going to play into this but my suspicion is more than not. I expect the results to show a measured but not decided win for Clinton. I just think that there’s a part of this that can’t be polled but will show up once women get to the polls on Tuesday.