There are dark times ahead.
The ignorance of the American people, our willingness to throw progress on the fire in the name of capitalistic excess and religious bigotry, will cost our nation dearly. Our grandchildren will be unable to tell the world that America is, as Lincoln said, the hope of the world. We will be what Stephen A. Douglas called us, the terror of it.
That said, there are some trends that won’t change, no matter how Elon huffs and puffs. You can’t fight the market, and Republicans don’t want to.
The most important non-change will involve the War Against Oil. It’s been won. The Sun shines, the wind blows, and we live on a molten rock, as I wrote 16 years ago. Renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels, getting cheaper still.
One unexpected benefit is that the market for e-bikes, and other forms of small e-transport, will continue to grow and American cities will have to adapt to it. The flexibility of small electric motors is obvious. So are the economics. For trips under 10 miles, it’s going to become a default choice. The resistance of car heads to cities is futile.
What Won’t Change
The cost difference between e-transport and cars is going to grow as cars, especially electrics, become computers on wheels. I don’t mind a car for a 30 mile trip. I don’t need one to go to the store. Which reminds me I don’t have to go to the store anymore. If the car is self-driving, why do I own it?
Returning to the office, as our tech overlords demand, is less of a hardship if there’s valuable equipment to go to, and if you’re able to live close. This will also help with the e-transport revolution. Central cities will expand, pushing the poor into close-in suburbs, with gentrification at the edges of these new ghettos of opportunity. This is what European cities look like today. Paris’ ghettoes have been on its outskirts for years. The ghettoes will form a border between the e-transport world and the car world, the near-poor enforcing the border with low mileage cars and right turns at red lights.
A second non-change will be DEI. I know. Musk has promised to reverse it. Banks and other big companies are walking away from it. This doesn’t matter.
There isn’t enough talent among white male heterosexuals to lead our tech-heavy economy forward. Many companies already have Indian or Chinese heritage CEOs. They’re the personification of diversity. Just as you wouldn’t expect a redneck to disadvantage his own kind, I wouldn’t expect an immigrant to do so, either. Remember that DEI was only about a lean on behalf of the previously disenfranchised. An equal accounting of strengths will still bring more women, more immigrants, and indeed more black folks to leadership.
What Will Be Lost
The biggest loss will be in the era of antitrust. It’s being reversed. Tech wants domestic monopolies for global dominance, and there’s not a damn thing we can do about it.
Tariffs will be reversed. Tariffs are always reciprocal, and the lessons of the 19th century won’t be unlearned by the economies of the 21st century. Not without a depression and revolution that will take the wealthy down with it.
This is the Achilles Heel of Musk-Vance policy. As much as they may wish to go back to the days of Andrew Jackson, to the spoils system and a government dependent on tariff revenue, they’re going to have to find some other way of funding their dreams.
What May Be Gained
At the heart of the Musk-Vance Administration lie Peter Thiel and Palantir. Thiel is driving everything behind the scenes. As I have written here several times, it was Thiel, and Palantir’s AI architecture, that made victory possible.
Thiel’s goal is American global hegemony. Israel has already taken out the Palestinians, and Iran, using Palantir technology. Ukraine has used it to fight Russia to a draw. I don’t know how Thiel feels about Putin or the Russian Imperial System, but he seems to know how to beat it.
The whole point of the trade war, such as it is, is to delay China’s efforts in AI. In this Thiel will fail. China will have AI, centrally controlled by its government, overseeing its expansion efforts and enforcing conformity among its people.
The outcome of this new Cold War is not something I can foresee, nor something I will see. What I do know is it will depend on how many trained, empowered, and energized people each side can bring to the Tech War. I believe we can bring more, that immigration will make a difference, but I also believe we’re better off with a draw here than a win.
What Comes Next
What happens when anyone or anything seeks absolute control over people is that people resist it. It’s a universal truth of human nature. Resistance is never futile, even if it may appear to be so at the time. Resistance is like water on rock, wearing things away, forcing change slowly.
That’s what America will get over the next few years. Slow, positive change, wherever economic reality dictates it. Conflict, resistance, and a slow wearing of authoritarianism wherever liberty is turned back, as in the 1950s.
Not a happy prospect. But I didn’t vote for it, either.
