The Georgia Exception

I’ve been reading a lot of blogs over the weekend, and Left
Blogistan is, in a word, ecstatic.

MyDD, which tries very hard to be pessimistic
nevertheless has to admit today:

Although the Republicans have had, at least in the past two
elections, a better turnout operation than the Democrats, this year
while many Democratic voters will head to the polls with little or no
encouragement from party activists, Republican operatives are going
to find getting their voters to vote is like pulling teeth.

Of course, there is a big exception to all this. It’s the state
where I live, Georgia.

Here in Georgia, the collapse of George W. Bush has been matched
by the rise of Sonny Perdue (right). Never mind that Georgia families have
lost 8.7% of their earning power these last six years,
or that our SAT scores were (until recently) 50^th among
the states (they sent out a cheering press release when they got to
46^th).

Never mind the sprawl that turns Atlanta commutes into LA-like
marathons. Never mind the pollution, the crappy schools, or the fact
that the manufacturing and agriculture bases of the economy have
collapsed. Never mind that one-third of Georgians are black – our
Congressmen are leading the fight to kill the Voting Rights Act.

And the voters, apparently, are cheering all this.

Sonny Perdue has a 9-1 financial advantage
over his rival, he’s gotten an issue in immigration, and he’s got opponents who seem
ashamed to call themselves Democrats.
In 2006!

It’s quite remarkable.

Why is this happening?  I have a theory. Several theories.

Consider that in 1966, an equivalent
point in the last cycle, this state elected Lester Maddox (left), the last
true segregationist. Or consider that this state – along with the
other Dixiecrat states of Alabama, South Carolina, and Mississippi
(where the political climate is similar) represent the heart of the
base from which Republicans have been building-out ever since then.

The thesis of the Nixon Era – fear, division, the theory of
conflict – it plays very well here. It speaks to the natural
prejudices of the majority. It’s where they grew up. The FDR Thesis
never really ruled here. Even Jimmy Carter ran as a conservative. The
Civil Rights movement succeeded here through compromise, leaning into
the wind, and was rejected the moment it tried to go beyond mere
legal acceptance. I still have to call the Civil War “The Recent
Unpleasantness” for fear of offending someone. (Don’t worry about
German or Japanese attempts to guzzy-up their WWII images until
you’ve seen Georgians in action.)

Something else bears mentioning, and that is 2002. Until 2002 no
Republican had been elected Governor of Georgia since Reconstruction.
Suddenly, with Sonny Perdue’s upset over Roy Barnes, everyone
switched. Long-time rural representatives changed parties en masse.
Money which had been balanced between the parties now goes entirely to the Republicans.

Talent switched sides, too. Today’s Georgia Democrats just won’t
accept issues which are handed to them. Are legislative leaders
shaking down business interests?
Did the Governor have laws changed to give himself a tax break?

Well, you won’t hear about it in the ads of his opponent, Mark
Taylor (right). Instead, Taylor tries to run to Perdue’s right. Lock up all
felons forever!
Eliminate the state property tax!
The candidate himself is fatter than the Pillsbury Dough Boy, and
wedded to the kind of politics that hasn’t really worked for Georgia
Democrats since the heyday of Zell Miller. If you’re going to be
Republican Lite, people will take the real thing, after they get a
taste of it.

The Georgia economy this decade has been tied completely to the
Bush “recovery.” It’s nearly all real estate. That and the
military. The only folks making money here are paving the forests for
townhomes. One-third of the mortgages in Atlanta are interest-only.

The new leaders of the legislature all come from the
“exurbs” — Chestnut Mountain, Hiram, Powder Springs, Dallas, Woodstock,  St. Simon’s
Island (which despite being 400 miles from Peachtree is, in fact, an Atlanta exurb). While the city
builds up and the inner suburbs turn poor, white flight continues,
and everyone who hasn’t flown wants to.

So every Democratic officeholder in the state is under threat. Two
Democratic Congressmen are likely to go down to an onslaught of ads
straight out of the 1970 GOP playbook
– one in a district that’s 45% black!

Georgia Democrats are like a drunk that hasn’t quite hit bottom
yet. They will in November. Maybe they’ll wake up and decide to be
Democrats. But when they do, it will be too late for them to take
power for a generation. Because opportunities like 2006 don’t come
along very often, and when you run away from them, you deserve your
fate.