Political theses’ end explosively, and usually unexpectedly.
That’s because those who believe them the most are young — it’s the only reality they know. So those young people working to replace the thesis can be guaranteed to finish the drill (as Georgia coach Mark Richt likes to say). They will work throughout the campaign as though they are behind, even if they are far ahead. They won’t believe some old codger who tells them there used to be other theses in politics, that people change their minds, that change is constant.
Thank goodness for these people.
A lot of us oldsters have been getting pretty cocky lately, reading
the polls, seeing the headlines. We see Democrats pushing back on
national security (finally), we see leads of anywhere from 8 to 15
points on a "generic" ballot, we remember back to 1966, when all this
started. And we say to ourselves, "finally. We will be delivered from
this hell."
But not so fast, say the youngsters. As MyDD notes, younger analysts are far more pessemistic than older ones,
and with good reason. They have never seen a time when the knees didn’t
jerk in response to the GOP pull. Stories like this one, about how
Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee eked out a primary win with help from the national party, make them cringe. (They make me smile. The Democrat outpolled him in the primary, even without opposition.)
So long as the pessmism doesn’t turn into panic, so long as everyone
stays focused on the goal — getting back the subpoena power — then
I’m not telling anyone different. So be a gloomy gus, Kos. Ignore any
history older than you are. Fine by me.
That’s how tsunamis are made.
