As Israel Learns, So Learns the U.S.

Israel has had a very tough time this
month.

Yesterday, for instance, it lost 24
soldiers in Lebanon.
That’s nearly the equivalent of our entire losses over three years in
Iraq, since Israel has just 1/100^th of the U.S.
Population.

What has it gotten for that sacrifice?
Cut through the rhetoric and the answer is, not much. Hizbollah used
new tactics and fought it to a draw.

After a suitable period of grieving
(and grieving is a process) Israel is going to learn from this.
Unlike America, Israel has no choice.

It was the tactics of shock-and-awe, of
kill ’em all, and of occupation which failed Israel in Lebanon, just as it has failed
us. The question now becomes in what direction will Israel turn?

There are two directions possible.

One side, the Likud side, is ready to
bring out the nukes. They’re for redefining Palestinians as
non-natives of the area, forcibly removing them to Jordan, sealing
everything up tight and wiping anyone who objects off the map
Americans might recognize this as the William Kristol school of
policy analysis
.

The other side is still emerging. It’s
more nuanced. It believes more in proportionality. And it’s willing
to re-engage in the peace process, such as it is, after Hizbollah
finishes its victory dance.  

The question is, how fast will this
learning take place, and how quickly will it be transferred to the
U.S.? Until it is the political civil war will remain among the
Democrats,
and Republicans will have an advantage – never mind the polls. 

A substantial portion of the Democratic
donor base is as committed to Israel as any neo-con warmonger.
Sure, they’re hurt that Joe Lieberman lost. But they can blame
Lieberman for that. They give a lot of money to people like Hillary
Clinton, and most Democratic Senators remain more in tune with the
Democratic Leadership Council than the Netroots.

They also give to Republicans, without
a qualm. In the east they may be “Bloomberg Democrats” and in the
west “Schwarzenegger Democrats,” but the political effect is the
same. Without these people, today’s Netroot activists, with their
Open Source Thesis, may seem even further from power than the
Goldwater-ites were in 1966. (In fact, when you look at the
Republican leadership circa 1966, they are just as far.)

As Israel learns to change its tactics,
and rejects the “kill ’em all” policy, this will have a huge
political impact in the U.S. Democratic donors will suddenly have
cover to lean left again (where their hearts really belong) and a new
governing majority will emerge. (Nixon + Wallace = 57%).

The only question is how long this will
take. It would be ironic if history repeated itself precisely.
But in Joe Lieberman’s independent campaign for the Senate, perhaps
it already has.