Rising foreclosures means there is more housing inventory in the "motivated seller" category -- banks and county governments are always motivated to sell. Thus, the real floor price of housing has to overshoot its true value, in order to clear out that inventory. Once the plunge begins, in other words, it continues.
What's different this time? Pollyanna, I think. A willful suspension of belief in reality on many levels -- politically, in terms of the war, in terms of the environment. When there are so many negative facts staring at people and they refuse to look at any of them, you better bundle up against the storm.
What it means is that Bill Gates is still smarter than you are, Ms. Post and Mr. Weekly (if those are your real names).
The next recession is going to be nasty. Real estate is going to go way down, earnings will fall, the dollar will be at risk of collapse. Smart investors are already geographically diverse. That means you should already have a substantial part of your assets in countries that use other currencies -- Yen, Euro, whatever.
America is falling behind. If real estate and heavy equipment and defense contracting is what works, you're eating your seed corn.
What we're really looking for here is a signature race, one where the Democrat is given no chance, even now, but triumphs anyway.
We could be getting screwed right now and not know it.
It is at times like this that I am ashamed to have ever dreamt of being a journalist. It is at times like this that I'm glad no TV network ever hired me. It is at times like this that I'm embarrassed for those who take the job seriously, or think we should ever take them seriously for the job they do.
Right or wrong isn't the point here. The point is excess. The point is crisis. The point is that, for the Nixon Thesis of Conflict, the end is undoubtedly near.
Copyright and patent reform are going to become key issues as those who practice open source politics reach power. The abuses of our time need to be collected (they are being collected), documented (they are being documented), then used in the political battles to come.
