Where Crises Begin

Every generational change in American politics has come heralded by immense, frightening changes.

• The Civil War could not be ignored.
• The Panic of 1893 could not be ignored.
• The Great Depression could not be ignored.
• The 1960s could not be ignored.

There are two reasons why American politics have not yet shifted decisively, despite polls which currently give Democrats an advantage.  The first is medicine. The Nixon Generation is still vital and vibrant, its knees still conditioned to jerk.

The second is the lack fo a crisis. Yes, Iraq seems bad. Yes, the economic future seems bad. Yes, the environment seems bad. Yes, energy prices seem bad. They seem bad, but most of us figure we’ll muddle through.

Thus for most Americans, life continues as normal. Housing starts continue. Jobs are plentiful for new graduates. The war’s costs seem sustainable. It’s business as usual in cable news. While Katrina had the political impact of the 1965 Watts Riots, most Americans still think of the news as being something that happens on TV, not something that  happens to them.

It’s possible that no decisive event will occur before November. In 1966 life went on as before, and while there seemed to be a shift in politics that year, Republicans remained the minority party. The explosion occurred a year later, leading to the tumultuous events of 1968.

What events might shake things up decisively? We’ve already mentioned some:

• China calling in its debt.
• A Class 5 hurricane hitting New York or Miami or Orlando or Houston head-on.
• A foreclosure explosion, and a stock market crash.
• A sudden immense loss of American lives in Iraq, on the order of hundreds or thousands at once.
• An Earthquake met by an anemic response.
• An oil price spike to $120/barrel or higher.

Right now, the Bush Administration is doing what the Johnson people did
in the mid-1960s, everything they can to institutionalize their
advantage. The Alito nomination was a pivotal moment in the evolution
of Supreme Court law. A successful attack on the Estate Tax could have
been equally pivotal, eliminating incentives toward philanthropy.

These are the real last throes. They’re not in Iraq. The likelihood of
one of the events above happening is much higher than Washington
imagines. The Washington of the 1960s didn’t see their political
earthquake coming on either. They ignored the Goldwater people, ignored
the disillusionment within their own ranks over Vietnam, ignored the
Black Power movement and student protests.

The revolution is never televised.