The following is this week’s lead essay at A-Clue.Com, the free weekly e-mail newsletter I have produced since 1997. It’s always free, and you’re invited to subscribe.
Atlanta got off easy this summer.
Sure, we had our share of 95 degree days. But few went much higher. And air conditioning is a basic element in the South’s infrastructure. The Southern Company overbuilt its generating capacity for years, and it kept regulators in its pocket to build some of the dirtiest power plants in the universe, so we’ve been comfortable, with no brownouts.
Of course, agriculture is flat on its back. But generally the mood here is sanguine.
That’s because no state is as tied to the Bush economy as Georgia. We have a huge military-industrial complex, so we’re getting a lot more money from Washington than we’re sending there. Sprawl is immensely popular, which spreads money up to the Carolina border, down to the far reaches of the coast, and west along I-20 nearly to the state line.
The only “off” note, for Republicans, is that social conservatives and long-time activists are suddenly less popular than business conservatives and other arrivistes. Ralph Reed lost, but so did other social conservatives with no ties to Jack Abramoff.
Instead business conservatives are building their own K Street Project. Glenn Richardson, the Republican House speaker with no opposition, has raised a half-million dollars (so far), mostly in big chunks from lobbyists and businesses. Pawnbroker Rod Aycox showed em how it’s done – he maxed out for himself, several family members, and various business names with the leadership – and now these boys want everyone to do it. It’s Shakedown Street on Peachtree, and no one seems to be complaining.
What will change that is a real estate crash. Forget California, no state is as ready for a crash as this one.
- One-third of our current home loans are interest-only.
- Foreclosure rates are high and rising.
- See-through office towers are scaring away the smart money.
This city may have a higher percentage of its people locked-into real estate than any other. Brokers, Realtors, investors, mortgage bankers – all these jobs are under imminent threat.
When they’re gone it’s possible someone here will notice global warming.
That’s the way it always is. Few react to crises until they’re right on
top of them. Pundits almost never predict doom, because doom is rare,
so they would rarely be right.
But sometimes a collapse is
imminent. Sometimes the doomsayers aren’t wrong. And when the crunch
does come, people tend to look around and see what else is wrong, like
awakening from a dream.
Right now, America and the world are
at the start of a crisis that will change everything you think you
know, about just about everything. It’s still the dream time here, the
mood sour and not yet boiling. But the stove is turned up high and it
will boil over.
Hot enough for ya?
