With pollsters saying that Republicans could lose 50 House seats because of La Cage Aux Foley, it’s important to note that not every Republican is screwed here.
If you have a popular Republican Governor, you can hang on to him.
This is one thing which distinguishes the Deep South, including Foley’s home state of Florida. The Republican governors of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi and Alabama are fairly popular. They are all running well ahead (or, in Florida, their successors are). So voters in those states are going to start their process by choosing a Republican and feeling pretty good about it.
There is no guarantee they’ll all go straight-ticket, of course. In all these states there are Democratic "constitutional offices," minor statewide executives, where Democrats are running well. In Alabama it’s the Lt. Governor. In South Carolina it’s the superintendent of education. In Georgia it’s the attorney general. In Florida it’s the CFO. But in close congressional races, like GA-8 and GA-12, at least the top of the ticket is not a millstone around the Republican challenger’s neck.
These governors all know how important they are to down-ticket races, so despite huge leads they are all running hard. They are trying to build bigger legislative majorities, or bring down people who might become potential rivals to their parties later. (Such as Thurbert Baker in Georgia.)
One other important point to make. This election is not about the
economy, stupid. All the states I’ve mentioned here have had huge drops
in median family income since the year 2000 — as much as 10%. It’s in places where incomes are OK, like Montana and Rhode Island and Wyoming, that Republicans are actually struggling.
What Republicans seem maddest about is that the people they voted for
did not deliver on their promises. Conservatives are angry about the
budget, Christians are mad about FoleyGate, libertarians are angry over
habeus corpus.
But if they’re happy with their Republican Governor, they might just hold their nose and save the party.
