An End, Not a Beginning

A careful analysis of the 2006 election returns shows that it was an end, not a beginning.

While Democrats won by 7 points overall, and Netroots Democrats performed better in competitive races than DCCC Democrats, the issues defining the next generation were simply not addressed.

This is easy to see looking at the returns from the South. Incumbency remained powerful. The Republican Party, wedded to the idea of a universal exurb, was able to overcome hard facts — median income fell in the region through the decade and the region’s manufacturing base disappeared. The old business elite, which had supported Democrats as the "incumbent" party, was replaced by a new elite — mainly mortgage bankers and real estate interests — that was overwhelmingly Republican.

This was true in every state within the region, including Florida, which had previously been seen as a special case. While minorities actually increased their affection for Democrats, Republicans still dominated. For every voter who felt disillusioned with Republicans because of what was happening regarding their church, there was another who felt closer to their state Republicans because of what was happening at work.

Unfortunately for Republicans, this favorable balance is fragile, and due for destruction. Exurbs depend on ready supplies of gasoline, and a refusal by voters to see environmental issues as paramount.

Events will simply not allow that to continue.

The biggest mistake made by political analysts — and a ton of them
are already handicapping 2008 — is that they don’t account for events,
even likely events.

• The chances that gas prices will remain at a ‘low" $2/gallon over
  the next two years is very, very small — competition for resources for
  China ia certain to grow.
   
• The chances that we will not be hit by a major hurricane, like
  Katrina, is also extremely low — the reversal of normal east-west
  patterns for the storms this past year was barely remarked upon.
   

Trends and events are both pushing this exurban concept further from
reality. This will have enormous political effects in the South. Cities
and their inner suburbs will become necessities, as will realistic
policies regarding diversity. Economies, and the way they underpin
political arrangements, will appear to collapse.

Think of what happened last year, when gas prices were $3/gallon.
People drove less. They drove more slowly. They honestly considered
alternatives, in terms of where they lived and how they got around. As
interest rates and gas prices reversed in late 2006, all these changes
reversed as well. But those changes are absolutely essential in order
to face the future.

Iraq did cause some upsets. It brought enough Democrats home to unseat Anne Northrup in Kentucky’s 3rd CD. In unseated George Allen in Virginia. Corruption also resulted in Democratic gains in North Carolina
and in Florida’s Congressional delegation. But these gains were very
limited — a change of only 4 Congresspeople and 1 Senate seat.

These issues will not remain in the forefront. Iraq will either be
dealt with or will deal with us by the next election. Corruption is not
a constant.

The real changes that will test us, as a people, and as a political system, are yet to come.

This was the end. The beginning remains over the horizon.