Will The Movement Get Played?

We now come to a crucial point in the history of our time, a moment no one in the MSM (or SCLM) is taking any note of. (The picture is from Footnote TV.)

It’s the time for The Movement of our time, the Netroots, to take its part in Indecision 2008.

The Netroots are what movement conservatives were in the late 1960s, what Populist-Progressives were in the 1930s, what Republican Progressives were in the 1890s, what Abolitionists were in the 1850s. They are a new political force, highly agitated, very active. They are ready for power, but the establishment denies this reality.

A look back at past crises, past replays of our The 1967 Game, shows a fairly mixed bag:

• In 1859 Abolitionists within the new Republican Party sought compromise. They feared that someone too closely associated with them would spark Civil War. Someone like William Seward of New York, for instance. Abraham Lincoln was a compromise choice, a "Westerner," a "former Whig," and a man who never identified himself with their movement. They were, of course, wrong on just about everything, except of course for Lincoln.
• In 1895 progressives seemed to have no one to turn to.  Democrat William Jennings Bryan was a Populist, which (to many) meant he was a radical. Republicans refused to budge from their own economic program and chose William McKinley. McKinley turned out to be far more progressive than anyone then (or later) imagined, and is remembered now mostly for making Theodore Roosevelt his running mate in 1900.
• In 1931 populist progressives got lucky. They had a candidate, Franklin D. Roosevelt. He was a compromise with their principles, he was from New York (heartland of evil capital) but he said many of the right things. His victory at the 1932 Democratic Convention has been mentioned here before — suffice to say he may have been the most brilliant politician in American history.
• In 1967 the conservative movement got played. Richard Nixon wasn’t their one. They distrusted him just as Netroots supporters today distrust Hillary Clinton, and for the same reasons. But they didn’t trust themselves, either. So many supported a man who felt right, who promised a new era in vague terms, who seemed electable — Mitt Romney’s dad. He went down in flames with one word — blackmail. By 1968 conservatives had no one. An attempt to bring Reagan into the race fizzled. Nixon was the one.

So what happens now?

Right now the Kos primary is closely divided between two candidates, John Edwards and Barack Obama.

Both have bases to call their own. Obama has young voters. I was probably wrong in my Who’s Romney Now segment last year — Obama is running now as George Romney did then. Edwards has his base in the union movement — trial lawyers who defend working men may be anathema to other rich men, but their clients know better.

Neither base is the Netroots base. Both Obama and Edwards would very much like the Netroots base. The Netroots base was united in 2004, just as movement conservatives were united in 1964 behind Barry Goldwater. They are not united now.

There is one man who could unite them, Al Gore. But Gore is determined to play Reagan’s 1968 role this time, refusing to enter the race until it is too late for him to win it. A Gore endorsement for either Edwards or Obama would be a game-changer.

But so, to a great extent, would be a Markos Moulitsas endorsement. With a press conference. And a round of TV interviews. With our without his baby on his lap. (Cameras love babies, Kos.) It’s possible something like this may play out after Kos’ own YearlyKos confab in (well what do you know) Chicago.

Due to the calendar, all of this will have to play out over the next several months. Where Republicans in 1968 could wait out the early primaries — actually they couldn’t but they thought they could — September this time looms as a real deadline. For a Netroots endorsement to be effective, large numbers of people need to be activated, and need to work hard for several months before the February 5 "Super-Duper-Tuesday" primary settles things.

So ignore the polls, and ignore the headlines. Ask yourself, What Will Al Do? What Will Markos Do? And if they do nothing by the end of September, Hillary’s probably the one.

That’s what history tells us, of course. What the future holds is up to you, and to all of us.