For the last three years I have been honored to cover southern politics at Voic.Us, a political site launched by a friend and then left in my care (he went off to start a sports business — smart fella.)
At Voic.Us I go for a minimum of personal commentary. (Sometimes I can’t help myself.) Instead I try to let links do my talking. Some stories can have dozens of links to blogs and newspapers.
I try to look at every political blog in 10 states — Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, and Kentucky. For a Democrat this can be depressing. Back in 2006 I liveblogged the returns and watched as Democrats picked up a grand total of 1 House seat in the region.
I just finished my final soundings for 2008, doing articles on each one of those states. Here is what I found out.
If the Voic.Us region were the whole country you would doubtless be looking at President McCain. He has solid leads in 6 states and a real chance of winning 3 more. Only one state, Virginia, can definitely be painted blue.
But almost everywhere conservative bloggers seem dispirited. (The exception is Tennessee, which has now surpassed Georgia as the most ineffectual Democratic organization in the nation.) Democrats have Senate seats in play in Mississippi and Kentucky (the McCain landslide will bury them there), but they look set to break even in Louisiana and could actually make gains everywhere else.
Why?
The reason is organization. You can call Obama the Western Union Co., but the inside story of 2008 is What Hath Howard Wrought?
Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy started
the transformation. He built the roadmap. Barack Obama followed it masterfully. It is real, even in the South. Republicans know this. They feel outgunned.
Worse, the Republican Party is now completely divorced from its
grassroots, much as the Democrats themselves were at the start of the
decade. Conservative bloggers on the whole are crazy gonzo conservative, Sarah Palin is a moderate to them. Many are
several beans short of a combination plate. But if you don’t follow the
grassroots you have an empty parade. Ask Harold Ford and the Democratic Leadership Council about that.
This is what has put Saxby Chambliss into deep doo-doo in my own
state of Georgia. Sure, the Obama people have a great ground game.
Sure, early voting by black folks is through the roof. But if the
rightroots were excited it would not matter. Fact is they’re not. Saxby
voted for the bailout, Saxby’s for comprehensive immigration reform,
Saxby is (frankly) too liberal for ’em. Many would just as soon throw
him an anvil as a life preserver.
So how good will Democrats do, really? Thanks to the revolt of the Republican rightroots they could do very, very well indeed. This is how high the tide could rise by Wednesday:
- President-elect Obama will win all 4 states where he is competitive — Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida.
- Democrats will add at least one new House member in both Alabama and South Carolina.
- Democrats will get a net gain of 3 in the Senate, with Georgia
being the big surprise following a romp in Virginia and a solid win for
Kay Hagan over Libby Dole, whose campaign is 30 years out of date. - Democrats could pick up a net of 4 seats in Virginia, another 4 in Florida and 2 more in North Carolina.
- Republicans have a shot to pick off only two House Democrats — Tim
Mahoney in Florida’s 16th (like Foley, but straight) and (less likely)
Jim Marshall in Georgia’s 8th. Hopes are fading for Republican wins in
Alabama’s 5th and Mississippi’s 1st, even in Louisiana’s 6th.
Look, over one-third of the total possible vote is in, right now, in
Georgia, with Democrats up by 15 points. The margin is even bigger,
albeit with a lower percentage total of votes in, in Florida,
Mississippi, and Virginia. Southern Republicans have two days to get their act
in gear but John McCain has scuppered the ground game for an air war
and the rightroots want to toss his wing of the party into the sea.
I’m going to be "Driving Ms. Democrat" to the polls here in Georgia
on Tuesday, and hopefully celebrating long into the night. I’ll be on
vacation from Thursday through Sunday.
See you on the other side of history.
