Addressing the Crisis

Think of this as Volume 12, Number 1 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

Despite all the problems of the world, there is a feeling of confidence in America. (Picture from UC Santa Cruz. Go Banana Slugs.)

The Crisis which has been building for a generation, and which has become obvious over the last four years, is finally going to be addressed.

But before we get to work there is something important which bears constant repeating.

It's going to be hard. At times, the task before us will seem impossible. We will be told it's impossible, by many people, we will be told to turn back, to turn away. And we will want to, very much.

Don't expect wisdom out of the opposition or the press corps. The first group got us into this mess and still refuses to own it. The second enabled this mess and still refuses to own that. To a large degree we will be on our own.

Our leaders will come to seem distant, no matter how hard they work to avoid it. The daily grind will consume them, and the minutiae will threaten to consume us as well.

The only hope is to keep our eyes on the prize.

This will prove doubly hard to achieve because the price of oil is now down, and it will stay down as long as economic growth remains negative.

As we make demand for oil more elastic we find that supply remains inelastic. We will be heavily tempted, especially over the next year, to bypass the War Against Oil in favor of other priorities which appear more urgent, as OPEC offers what seem like incredible bargains.

But what we need to understand is that these are like the free tastes a cocaine dealer will offer a recovering addict. (And that's an old analogy — consider the last act of Porgy & Bess.) They are meant to enslave, with the addict's eyes wide open. Having seen the destruction of the drug, the addict goes to it anyway. (Picture from Wikipedia.)

We are as addicted to oil as any addict is to cocaine. It now provides a permanent brake on economic growth, just as cocaine keeps its victims trapped in degradation. We think we can do just a little and the price will stay reasonable. But we have to quit, and there will be no real quitting until we all recognize we're addicts who must take our removal from oil one day at a time, until we're willing to pay as much to stay off the stuff as we once were to stay on it.

There are some easy ways to reduce demand for oil, but their economic impact is like the addict's little tastes. They don't replace oil, they just reduce demand and keep prices low. We must have policies which force the complete replacement of oil:

1. Geothermal power, especially from the West (where it's closer to the ground).
2. Solar panels on every roof, and a grid that can buy this power when it exceeds current demand.
3. Windmills everywhere, not just in West Texas but wherever there is wind.
4. A network of hydrogen connected to our current water networks, so the "waste" from burning hydrogen is used productively and recycled, rather than vented as today's hydrogen cars vent it.
5. Innovation, so we can pull power from the sea, from rivers, from wherever it happens to be.

The new grid can be justified on national security grounds, since it is far more robust, less subject to enemy attack, than the current system. If every neighborhood has a back-up fuel cell, powered by locally-produced hydrogen, black-outs become a thing of the past.

Of course this is a vision of America in the year 2030. In the meantime we are talking about some very expensive re-working of highly complex systems. We have to make hard decisions about either replacing all long-distance power lines with new materials or of building new hydrogen pipelines. And we will have to do this not (as anticipated a year ago) against a backdrop of high and rising oil prices, but against a backdrop of low and stable prices.

But the industrial country that can do this most rapidly, that can bring its energy imports and oil use down to zero most rapidly, gains an enormous advantage in producing the goods our world needs. This can more than offset our present labor cost disadvantage, which is another reason why the task is so urgent.

Still, all this work will not create an immediate economic boom. Committing to it provides an economic jolt, but also guarantees low oil prices, which our economic rivals can use against us. This is just one example of how hard the task before us is going to be.

Elsewhere I have been writing about how our health care system needs to be transformed, with wellness coaches for all in order to lower our total health care costs. I have also been writing about how we must transform Internet access from a pricey private good to an abundant public resource, and then use that resource to become lifelong learners. These are big, big changes and opposition will be intense, corporate, well-paid and dominant within the media.

Just as will the case against oil.

Transformation is never easy. It was not easy in the 1860s when it meant war with our neighbors to transform our nation from an are to an is. It was not easy in the 1930s against a backdrop of crushing poverty and the specter of total world war just over the horizon.

It will be just as difficult this time, perhaps because of rather than despite our relative prosperity. It is harder, when you have a choice, to make the right choice than when you have no choice.

Our leaders are going to lose their popularity. It will be up to us, all of us, to remain committed to the long range goals which mean life for those who come after us, for our children and grandchildren.

But this is the path we have chosen, and what we must all understand, from here on out, is that no matter the temptation, turning back means death.