If you turn on the TV or listen to the mainstream media these days you would think that the War Against Oil was a one-time boom that is now going bust.
All eyes are said to be on the stimulus package, looking for cash to invest. Supposedly. Meanwhile our enemies in this war, like Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, are laughing themselves silly. America needs oil "like air, like oxygen to live, to survive.” You can almost hear the Bond villain laughter.
But this is not the reality. America is already the world's largest producer of wind energy, and will soon be number one in solar as well. Investors in the space remain optimistic. Some communities are starting to pay people who produce energy at their homes or offices.
It's true that the enemy is powerful, but its power is diminishing. The fact that oil prices are holding near the $50 level is good news. Everyone now knows that oil remains a permanent check on economic growth — that as growth returns oil prices will go up and take away any gains. This is leading to a growing determination, especially in this country, to rid ourselves of this dependence once and for all.
The best way to guarantee continued success is by changing the business model. A carbon tax would do that. In the short run it would work better than a price floor — if all industrialized countries adopt it. That's a danger for both proposals, and it's the main reason this Congress is unlikely to adopt it. (Instead we'll go with cap-and-trade, which is a short-term fix.)
But that dynamic is going to shift with the next Congress. By 2011 it's very possible that the stimulus will have begun working, and Congresscritters will be hearing how vital it is to re-balance the budget. That's when the carbon tax becomes politically palatable.
If imposed first where it's easily measured — in large plants — and then extended to trucks and finally cars as measurement technology improves and ramps up, carbon taxes acquire the "tax that man behind the tree" veneer that all the most popular conservative taxes (like sales taxes and lotteries) have.
What is clear in 2009 is that most people now understand that green is patriotic. Winning the War Against Oil means triumphing over all those foreign dictators we so love to hate — Chavez, Putin, the Sauds, the Iranians. This is something we need to concentrate on, reinforcing this link between patriotism and cutting out the carbon. The more Chavez, or some idiot oil executive, tells us this can't be done the more determined we will be to do it.
My hope is that patriotism can get us through the low-hanging fruit of the War Against Oil. Windmills are one form of low-hanging fruit. Efficiency is the other. Insulating, buying new windows, increasing our use of rail, small hybrids, lower-power computers — these all show a quick pay-off on the bottom line and face no political objections.
The heavy political lifting in this war has yet to begin. The time to prepare for it is now.
Hey Dana, interesting blog. I like the association of Patriotism and going green. It makes sense to me. I have a question; Did the recent cutback on useage of gas by consumers really have this huge effect on gas price? If so, can’t we continue this! It reminds me of the Montgomery bus boycotts. They used mass organization by consumers to gain power. Like Bill Maher says, when you ride alone, you ride with Bin Laden. Mass Transit and Telecommuting are more potent energy savers than any hybrid car will ever be.
a couple of notes. By saying that the U.S. is the world’s largest producer of Wind and soon solar, confuses the issue. It makes it sound like we can easily push these forms of generation to meet our needs. This is not the case. Wind and Solar have a place but will not be able to replace gas/coal/nuclear if we want to continue our current way of life. Maybe if we cut out hair dryers/toasters/air conditioning etc.. If we started living like they live in Cuba, we could switch over to solar, otherwise, its not the answer.
And also, its time for a new blog picture.
keep it up,
Dave
Hey Dana, interesting blog. I like the association of Patriotism and going green. It makes sense to me. I have a question; Did the recent cutback on useage of gas by consumers really have this huge effect on gas price? If so, can’t we continue this! It reminds me of the Montgomery bus boycotts. They used mass organization by consumers to gain power. Like Bill Maher says, when you ride alone, you ride with Bin Laden. Mass Transit and Telecommuting are more potent energy savers than any hybrid car will ever be.
a couple of notes. By saying that the U.S. is the world’s largest producer of Wind and soon solar, confuses the issue. It makes it sound like we can easily push these forms of generation to meet our needs. This is not the case. Wind and Solar have a place but will not be able to replace gas/coal/nuclear if we want to continue our current way of life. Maybe if we cut out hair dryers/toasters/air conditioning etc.. If we started living like they live in Cuba, we could switch over to solar, otherwise, its not the answer.
And also, its time for a new blog picture.
keep it up,
Dave