Think of this as Volume 14, Number 30 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.
Here is what you know, or think you know.
The Democrats are toast in November. They may lose the House, even the Senate. Barack Obama is doo-o-o-o-omed because America is a center-right country.
Wrong. Democrats may lose seats but they're not toast. They will lose neither house although majorities may be narrowed. Barack Obama is the closest thing we've had to a shoe-in for re-election (barring assassination) since Ronald Reagan.
Here's why.
It's the Economy, Stupid
The President's problems and those of his party are the result of a lousy recovery from the Great Recession.
But the next few months will show improvement. There will be jobs. Wall Street is heading up.
The reason is that corporate America is awash in cash that's losing value in its vaults and needs to be invested. Even if CEOs just buy back their own stock the value of that stock goes up. Buying each other, mergers, also cause the market to rise. And there are enormous opportunities in technology, in alternative energy, and in new manufacturing technologies, areas where America is a natural leader not just because we're educated but because you can find money here easier than anywhere else.
Why hasn't the recovery been bigger? Partly because the stimulus wasn't big enough. We know that because consumer prices are falling — we have deflation. When no one is spending free money, the country that steps up to the plate first wins.
Want proof? Look at Ireland. Under pressure from so-called smart people, they launched a program of austerity, cutting spending in order, they said, to cut their debt. It hasn't worked. That never works in a deflationary spiral. And it won't work here, either.
Not that Republicans really want that. If they did they would gladly foregoe the Bush tax cuts, which are due to expire. Or they would at least demand that tax cuts be offset with spending cuts to balance the books. But they don't think it's necessary. They think tax cuts "always" pay for themselves, even though Arthur Laffer's famous curve was a letter D lying on its back. At s0me point, according to the Laffer curve, lower rates do indeed mean lower revenue.
Even absent congressional action, growth is baked-in. Some parts of the stimulus, notably the health IT spending and broadband money, remain unspent. Companies are already hiring to grab those dollars — the health IT area actually faces a labor shortage. The Federal Reserve can also act to stop deflation by simply printing money.
The biggest problem our economy faces is a disconnect between what many people know how to do and the jobs we know will create the next boom. The previous economy was about real estate and finance. The next one will be about conservation and green production. Until results start appearing on bottom lines and investment bankers start pounding the table for new growth stocks, things will seem to be bad.
But they're getting better, and it's the direction of the economy in November, not its present state, that people will take into the voting booth.
Go long stocks.
Old Habits Die Hard
Democrats actually believed that two elections can change political assumptions that have survived for a generation.
They can't.
It's never been true. The Nixon Thesis was very unpopular in the summer of 1970. We heard the drumming forgetting Ohio. Cambodia. Economic stagnation. And all he was offering was more conflict — attacks on the press, on college professors, on black people and kids?
Why, yes. But the media didn't believe in it. Professional Washington didn't believe in it. They thought Nixon was a bad dream from which they would soon wake. Ed Muskie looked tough to beat. A new Thesis isn't believed in when it achieves power. It's only believed in after it's validated multiple times.
The most tragic thing about Watergate was it was so unnecessary, because FDR faced the same kind of reaction from the Washington of his time, and so did McKinley, and so did Lincoln, and for that matter so did Andrew Jackson. Old habits die hard. A generation's losers don't just slink out of town with their tails between their legs. They burrow, they plot revenge, they convince themselves that the old days are coming back.
They're always wrong. Once the ambulance crashes the people who crashed it don't come back. Ever. And don't tell me about the Tea Party. They're just hippies with a new drug, hate. It's a powerful drug, but most Americans aren't on drugs when they vote.
Pundits won't believe this case until it's proven beyond any reasonable doubt. (Then they'll say they knew it all along.) They didn't buy the Nixon Thesis until Reagan's re-election. They didn't accept the reality of the New Deal until Truman won in 1948. And they didn't accept the Lincoln Thesis of Union until Lincoln was dead.
Pundits are stupid. Always. That's why no one will pay me to be one.
The Silent Majority
There is a silent majority of Americans who are tired of the fighting and who just want to live in peace. They showed up in 2008 and are not being seen by pollsters or the incumbent media.
They never are.
Black people, brown people, and young people don't show up in polls, not in proportion to their real numbers. They don't have phones. They're not sitting around the house at 6 PM waiting for the pollster's call. All polling is always suspect, but it's especially suspect now.
That's because most new voters, most of the new majority, doesn't care about politics. This is always true. They will cock an ear to it in October, at which point they will be facing choices between two candidates in most races, and two parties in nearly all races, one saying things can't improve and one saying they can. In the end they'll go with those who say things can improve. Because young people (and most minority voters are young) are naturally optimistic. They have to be.
The President
This President has not yet begun to fight. He has been doing what he considers his job, playing the inside game, focusing on the most necessary reforms and building a record of achievement that is starting to look very impressive. Stimulus. Health reform. Financial reform. Education reform.
It's not perfect, it never is. Activist liberals are still nursing their wounds. They think that because they have the White House and Congress they deserve a pony. There are never ponies for a new Thesis. Every victory is hard won, and won through compromise, until that Thesis is validated by events. This one has yet to be validated.
But you will find that the President does have some power. You will find this President has some political talent. You will find that, through some small actions and a lot of rhetoric, liberals will be quite enthusiastic by October. And the unenthusiastic votes of the Silent Majority count just as much as those of any angry Tea Partier.
Hippies, haties, we don't roll that way. We're Americans.
Like Democrats in the McGovern years, like Confederates during the Civil War, Republicans have decided to double down on the crazy. The Tea Party was more popular in Republican primaries this year than any regular Republican, even though regular Republicans are actually more electable in the long run. By letting the tail wag the dog, Republicans are digging themselves an electoral hole they won't be able to get out of, and a record they won't be able to run away from.
The result of the 2010 election will be muddled. But it will suffice. Progress will continue, the economy will expand, things are going to be all right.
Lol – dream on!
You should keep a list of your predictions. It would make depressing reading when you would put the facts next to them. But then again, you’re not that honest.
Happy dreaming. Our foreigner in Chief will be neutered as of November.
Lol – dream on!
You should keep a list of your predictions. It would make depressing reading when you would put the facts next to them. But then again, you’re not that honest.
Happy dreaming. Our foreigner in Chief will be neutered as of November.
Several counterpoints:
(1) I do believe ordinary people are tired of the hate. From Rupert Murdoch to Luke Russert to ClearChannel, billions are spent each month on evangelizing hate; I call it “Conservative Sore Loser Syndrome.” Nixon and his predecessors didn’t have to deal with cable news, a media that doesn’t bother with facts, and a Congress bought and paid for by billions in lobbyist and bankster cash.
(2) I don’t remember Democrats being “crazy” during the “McGovern years” (1971-72?) Not sure the reference there, since I was in Washington DC during those years and later attended over a dozen Watergate hearings in 1974.
(3) Democrats will only beat the wingnut republicans IF AND ONLY IF they stick to Democratic principles, something Obama has yet to do. Ask Shirley Sherrod or Van Jones. So far, the record of “achievement” is forgettable and weak. Obama pre-compromised every one of his campaign promises on healthcare, Iraq, Wall Street reform, and immigration. The HAMP program was an abject failure that no one covers — it only allowed banks to squeeze a few more mortgage payments from people before screwing them. And he did this without gaining a single repub or teabagger vote on any major piece of legislation! So he was compromising against the very people who voted him to office based on HIS own promises.
(4) Finally, Dana, you keep seeing progress and expansion where I only see costs rising for everything I buy, foreclosures increasing each month, banks continue to close each week, Ken Feinberg that banks handed out $1.6bn of taxpayer bailout money to top execs, but that he can’t be bothered to claw it back from them, unemployment is sky-high and according to the White House, won’t see south of 9% until 2013, and dare I mention: we’re still borrowing billions each week from China to fight TWO endless, purposeless wars.
This is all so depressing to me, but yet I should clap louder for Dear Leader?
(5) We need a new Constitution, a new structure to government. The 18th century model is no longer working in the age of lobbyist, corporations-as-persons, only rich people running for office (or they definitely get rich after winning office!). Maybe if a (true) Democrat like Alan Grayson (FL) ran against Obama in the 2012 primaries, we might see him take fewer vacations (Obama has taken 8 vacations in the first 7 months of 2010) and get to WORK. He’s got the rest of his young life to vacation. Hold Congress in session year round until his agenda is passed; do something dramatic. Obama likes the idea of being president, just not actually working at it and accomplishing anything. Dare I say that without jobs, there will be more than enough crazies to make sure Obama is a one-term president, and that will dramatically lower the value of his third autobiography.
Several counterpoints:
(1) I do believe ordinary people are tired of the hate. From Rupert Murdoch to Luke Russert to ClearChannel, billions are spent each month on evangelizing hate; I call it “Conservative Sore Loser Syndrome.” Nixon and his predecessors didn’t have to deal with cable news, a media that doesn’t bother with facts, and a Congress bought and paid for by billions in lobbyist and bankster cash.
(2) I don’t remember Democrats being “crazy” during the “McGovern years” (1971-72?) Not sure the reference there, since I was in Washington DC during those years and later attended over a dozen Watergate hearings in 1974.
(3) Democrats will only beat the wingnut republicans IF AND ONLY IF they stick to Democratic principles, something Obama has yet to do. Ask Shirley Sherrod or Van Jones. So far, the record of “achievement” is forgettable and weak. Obama pre-compromised every one of his campaign promises on healthcare, Iraq, Wall Street reform, and immigration. The HAMP program was an abject failure that no one covers — it only allowed banks to squeeze a few more mortgage payments from people before screwing them. And he did this without gaining a single repub or teabagger vote on any major piece of legislation! So he was compromising against the very people who voted him to office based on HIS own promises.
(4) Finally, Dana, you keep seeing progress and expansion where I only see costs rising for everything I buy, foreclosures increasing each month, banks continue to close each week, Ken Feinberg that banks handed out $1.6bn of taxpayer bailout money to top execs, but that he can’t be bothered to claw it back from them, unemployment is sky-high and according to the White House, won’t see south of 9% until 2013, and dare I mention: we’re still borrowing billions each week from China to fight TWO endless, purposeless wars.
This is all so depressing to me, but yet I should clap louder for Dear Leader?
(5) We need a new Constitution, a new structure to government. The 18th century model is no longer working in the age of lobbyist, corporations-as-persons, only rich people running for office (or they definitely get rich after winning office!). Maybe if a (true) Democrat like Alan Grayson (FL) ran against Obama in the 2012 primaries, we might see him take fewer vacations (Obama has taken 8 vacations in the first 7 months of 2010) and get to WORK. He’s got the rest of his young life to vacation. Hold Congress in session year round until his agenda is passed; do something dramatic. Obama likes the idea of being president, just not actually working at it and accomplishing anything. Dare I say that without jobs, there will be more than enough crazies to make sure Obama is a one-term president, and that will dramatically lower the value of his third autobiography.
Sorry, Dana. This is not just another midcycle recession from which we will quickly bounce back. This is the once-in-a-lifetime repeat of the Great Depression.
The Roaring 90s and the Roaring 20s had a lot in common, but as you said, the party’s over and the ambulance has come to pick up the casualties.
We’re in this one for the long haul.
Sorry, Dana. This is not just another midcycle recession from which we will quickly bounce back. This is the once-in-a-lifetime repeat of the Great Depression.
The Roaring 90s and the Roaring 20s had a lot in common, but as you said, the party’s over and the ambulance has come to pick up the casualties.
We’re in this one for the long haul.
(1) True. But the hate comes from both sides. Dana is a good example.
(2) True. Dana probably forgot to do some fact checking.
(3) True as well. Obama is a failure in every aspect. What a weak president. He’s even weaker than Carter. And what a dud that was.
(4) Again, spot on. Dana only sees things that he wants to see – it is too painful for him to see the truth, it would shatter his carefully crafted hating worldview where everything non-Obama is ‘hate’, ‘slaunder’, ‘racist’, ‘teabagging’, ‘nuts’ etc. etc.
(5) We don’t need a new constitution to fix the problem of the current one being trampled on by – first Bush and now Obama.
The solution is very simple. Dump Obama. Get someone in who doesn’t raise taxes and doesn’t steal from current and future generations, and doesn’t explode debt levels.
4 out of 5 ain’t bad!
Btw Dana – no Bush blaming in this blog? You’re improving!
(1) True. But the hate comes from both sides. Dana is a good example.
(2) True. Dana probably forgot to do some fact checking.
(3) True as well. Obama is a failure in every aspect. What a weak president. He’s even weaker than Carter. And what a dud that was.
(4) Again, spot on. Dana only sees things that he wants to see – it is too painful for him to see the truth, it would shatter his carefully crafted hating worldview where everything non-Obama is ‘hate’, ‘slaunder’, ‘racist’, ‘teabagging’, ‘nuts’ etc. etc.
(5) We don’t need a new constitution to fix the problem of the current one being trampled on by – first Bush and now Obama.
The solution is very simple. Dump Obama. Get someone in who doesn’t raise taxes and doesn’t steal from current and future generations, and doesn’t explode debt levels.
4 out of 5 ain’t bad!
Btw Dana – no Bush blaming in this blog? You’re improving!
Pat: You are more right than you know. I have done a lot of thinking over the last week, and next week’s Clue promises to be a truly exciting one.
Pat: You are more right than you know. I have done a lot of thinking over the last week, and next week’s Clue promises to be a truly exciting one.
Franky & Zaine: You mistake what we argue about with what is really at stake. The reason I bash Bush is not because Bush was a bad President (which he was) who crashed the ambulance (as he did) but because he was the creature of economic interests that must be overthrown for our economy to progress. More next week.
Franky & Zaine: You mistake what we argue about with what is really at stake. The reason I bash Bush is not because Bush was a bad President (which he was) who crashed the ambulance (as he did) but because he was the creature of economic interests that must be overthrown for our economy to progress. More next week.
@Dana. Sure, Obama is not special interest-controlled? He’s the one who made sure the special interests were on the receiving end of the biggest wealth transfer in USA history. But – wait – of course he didn’t have a choice. LOL!
And I challenge you to put up a separate page on your socialist blog where you put down all your past and current predictions. With dates. Left column: prediction. Right column: outcome.
But you won’t, because you’re dishonest.
Where are the jobs?
Oh wait! It’s all Bush’s fault! LOL!
@Dana. Sure, Obama is not special interest-controlled? He’s the one who made sure the special interests were on the receiving end of the biggest wealth transfer in USA history. But – wait – of course he didn’t have a choice. LOL!
And I challenge you to put up a separate page on your socialist blog where you put down all your past and current predictions. With dates. Left column: prediction. Right column: outcome.
But you won’t, because you’re dishonest.
Where are the jobs?
Oh wait! It’s all Bush’s fault! LOL!
@Dana:
“Bush was a creature of economic interests that must be overthrown for our economy to progress.” So true, and it’s amazing that Obama surrounds himself with many of those same people who help create the conditions for our situation — Larry Summers, Tim Geithner, and a few guys from Clinton’s economic team as “advisors.” Even the ‘National Review’ loved them enough to call them “centrist.” Yikes!
Primarily, I’m judging this President by how he, his Party, and the media presented him to us: as transformative, as hope, as change. But almost everywhere I look, from Gitmo to Iraq to wiretapping to his DOJ not prosecuting Bush/Cheney/Rove (investigations are hard!), I’m not sure why he bothered to take office. As I carp, apparently it was to get a better golf tee time.
@Franky:
Socialist blog? Dana is dishonest? This is one of the most HONEST blogs I read online, on par with Glenn Greenwald. I love disagreeing with Dana, but his insights are often two steps ahead of my own thinking, which is why I keep reading. As for jobs, ask the banks who aren’t lending any money to small businesses why there are no jobs.
@Dana:
“Bush was a creature of economic interests that must be overthrown for our economy to progress.” So true, and it’s amazing that Obama surrounds himself with many of those same people who help create the conditions for our situation — Larry Summers, Tim Geithner, and a few guys from Clinton’s economic team as “advisors.” Even the ‘National Review’ loved them enough to call them “centrist.” Yikes!
Primarily, I’m judging this President by how he, his Party, and the media presented him to us: as transformative, as hope, as change. But almost everywhere I look, from Gitmo to Iraq to wiretapping to his DOJ not prosecuting Bush/Cheney/Rove (investigations are hard!), I’m not sure why he bothered to take office. As I carp, apparently it was to get a better golf tee time.
@Franky:
Socialist blog? Dana is dishonest? This is one of the most HONEST blogs I read online, on par with Glenn Greenwald. I love disagreeing with Dana, but his insights are often two steps ahead of my own thinking, which is why I keep reading. As for jobs, ask the banks who aren’t lending any money to small businesses why there are no jobs.
@Zaine.
Regarding honesty – you mistake ‘openness’ or ‘opinionated’ for the real meaning of honesty. Dana is dishonest. He’s so far left that he refuses to acknowledge facts. Or put in other words: his hate towards everything to the right of him is so deeply ingrained, that he refuses to accept facts when they don’t align with his hippie worldview. Really – he hasn’t changed since his youth. A rebelleous nature at heart – for the sake of rebellion. Because – what’s easier than complain and have someone else pay for your rosy ideals? There you have it – our hatin’ Dana. (no offense Dana 🙂 )
Regarding the jobs that aren’t here, even after Dana started screaming long ago that they would have been here by now: facts are a bitch. The jobs aren’t here.
And the banks not lending to people who can’t afford to pay back loans makes total sense. For your information: one of the reasons for the crisis a few years ago was that the banks had been lending to people who didn’t have enough lending capacity. And the cause for that was twofold: [1] political pressure from the left who thought it was oh-so-unfair that ‘people of color’ couldn’t live in big mansions because of those oh-so-mean-hatin’ white bankers; so congress pushed through legislation forcing banks to lend anyway; [2] greed from the banks.
So where are the jobs that you promised, Dana?
Oh wait! It’s STILL Bushes’ fault! LOL
@Zaine.
Regarding honesty – you mistake ‘openness’ or ‘opinionated’ for the real meaning of honesty. Dana is dishonest. He’s so far left that he refuses to acknowledge facts. Or put in other words: his hate towards everything to the right of him is so deeply ingrained, that he refuses to accept facts when they don’t align with his hippie worldview. Really – he hasn’t changed since his youth. A rebelleous nature at heart – for the sake of rebellion. Because – what’s easier than complain and have someone else pay for your rosy ideals? There you have it – our hatin’ Dana. (no offense Dana 🙂 )
Regarding the jobs that aren’t here, even after Dana started screaming long ago that they would have been here by now: facts are a bitch. The jobs aren’t here.
And the banks not lending to people who can’t afford to pay back loans makes total sense. For your information: one of the reasons for the crisis a few years ago was that the banks had been lending to people who didn’t have enough lending capacity. And the cause for that was twofold: [1] political pressure from the left who thought it was oh-so-unfair that ‘people of color’ couldn’t live in big mansions because of those oh-so-mean-hatin’ white bankers; so congress pushed through legislation forcing banks to lend anyway; [2] greed from the banks.
So where are the jobs that you promised, Dana?
Oh wait! It’s STILL Bushes’ fault! LOL
Dana, what’s going on with your website? It’s becoming unloadable with your dozens of trackers, counters, scripts etc. that load with your site.
If you want to make a dime, just give me your bank account. I’ll send you a Dollar. That’s real money, not fake money (to be earned by others) that Obama Mustafa Islama kiss-hand-of-Saudi-terrorist-funder specializes in.
Dana, what’s going on with your website? It’s becoming unloadable with your dozens of trackers, counters, scripts etc. that load with your site.
If you want to make a dime, just give me your bank account. I’ll send you a Dollar. That’s real money, not fake money (to be earned by others) that Obama Mustafa Islama kiss-hand-of-Saudi-terrorist-funder specializes in.