It really is the best of times, and the worst of times. At the exact same time.
In one reality, stocks trade at record levels, homes are worth their weight in gold, and fortunes head for the stratosphere.
In the other reality inflation is rampant, people can’t afford to retire, and millions are losing confidence in the future.
The fact that all these things are true is a political choice, one Washington pundits insist will be reinforced in 2022 and beyond. The pundit class is driving Democrats crazy, and the seeming passivity of the Biden Administration has them hopping mad.
But a lot of things are going to happen next year, and most of them aren’t bad.
For starters, we have it relatively easy. Chinese consumers who pre-paid for homes now find they’re not being built. Turkish consumers are finding their money is becoming worthless. Britain is going broke thanks to Brexit. Inflation and COVID are much worse in South America and Africa than they are here.
Most countries across the world are sleepwalking toward crisis while the bill for climate inaction is coming due.
There’s only one force that can take decisive action against the crisis, the Creativity Economy.
That’s why Elon Musk was named Time’s Person of the Year. No one else symbolizes the present moment, both the hope and insanity. His net worth is $265 billion but he tweets like a 12-year old. Electric cars like the Tesla promise to crash demand for oil. But they were designed with contradictory motives, low operating costs matched against luxury and (eventually) autonomy. They cost too much, and so do their competitors.
There are two ways all this can work out, and most people are betting big on disaster. But the market’s not. The market is betting that cloud-based productivity can tame inflation, and that innovation can tame climate change. It’s making those bets on the U.S. market, nowhere else. The market is saying that it’s Xi’s China that’s failing, while Biden’s America is succeeding. This is the opposite of what wealthy pundits in those markets are telling the rest of us.
My advice is to follow the money. It’s going to be a bumpy ride, but Moore’s Law has America’s back.
