I didn’t think Vladimir Putin was stupid enough to invade Ukraine.
I was wrong.
He’s just that stupid.
While most of the Internet (and all of Ukraine) is either fighting or cowering in fear right now, I want to offer some reasons for hope.
First, Russians don’t support this invasion. A lot of Americans discount popular opinion, especially in a dictatorship. But it still matters. Dictators are often toppled by internal opposition, combined with outside pressure. At some point, the veneer cracks and, as in the case of Qaddafi, you pull them out of a spider hole. Whether this happens to Putin is still unclear, but it’s no longer impossible.
Second, wars are won by economies. If America’s history shows anything, it’s this. Wars aren’t won by generals. They’re not even won by armies. They’re won by the people who supply those armies with material. Russia’s economy is about the size of New York City’s, and about half that economy consists of oil and gas exports. Their stock market has already fallen by half. Ours is down 1%.
Third, Republicans are hopelessly split. Most of the party is siding with Putin, as crazy as it sounds. People like Donald Trump and Tucker Carlson are traitors. No matter how the conflict goes, this must become clear to the rest of us. Everyone around them is now completely discredited. They threw in with the enemy and should now be seen as such. The other wing of the party is calling Democrats weak-kneed in opposing Putin. It’s like they’re trying to be Father Coughlin and Joe McCarthy at the same time. It won’t work.
All this makes for a decisive moment, both in our politics and the history of the world. If Putin’s blitzkrieg bogs down, he’s weak and he’s doomed. Even if he wins, he just had to put down popular revolts in Kazakhstan and Belarus. Now he’s got 41 million more enemies, and the entire western world seeking to isolate him.
There’s some talk that China may find this a good time to attack Taiwan, but I suspect they’re waiting and watching. If Putin falls, they may be dissuaded. China’s economy is teetering itself. Xi Jinping’s hold on power is no stronger than his ability to deliver for his people. He’s more vulnerable than he looks, too.
You’re going to read this like I’m a Pollyanna, a hopeless optimist. But we’ve been wandering in the dark ever since November 2016. This is the alarm clock going off. Things will fall one way, or they will fall the other. I think they’ll fall America’s way. I think that because our economy dominates the world, because our assets have yet to be deployed while the enemy is all-in, and because Donald Trump is no longer President of the United States.
