We’re now in the most dangerous and (for outsiders) nerve-racking portion of what I’m going to call Ukraine’s War for Independence.
It’s the siege.
Having spent most of the arsenal they came in with, Russia is trying to destroy Ukrainian cities and starve out the people, wrecking utilities, food supplies and safe gathering places. It won’t work. If you can’t take the people (and they can’t) you can’t take the place. That’s the lesson of Iraq, the lesson of Afghanistan, the lesson of Vietnam and nearly every other war since the Second World one. The only wars that work are wars of extermination. Ukraine is as big as Texas, with a population like California.
Russia is doing this because it is also under siege. It is cut off from supplies, its economy is shot, and that’s obvious even to those who only know what Putin tells them. He’s desperate, launching a civil war against his own people last week. Russian troops are also under siege within Ukraine. They can’t get supplies and soldiers can’t find it except by raiding. They’re being picked off one-by-one, tank by tank. There have even been counteroffensives.
This can’t go on. Something must happen or this is a global catastrophe. Planting season will soon be here. Russia and Ukraine supply much of Africa’s food. Imagine the Great Plains being assaulted by Canadian troops. The effect would be similar.
We’re watching and we’re waiting, like old men with a prostate cancer diagnosis. Events could operate and take out the Putin. What we’re seeing is chemotherapy and radiation, killing everything and hoping the patient survives the treatment. Markets are trying to adapt, but all bets are off once this ends. If it ends soon, you’re going to see the mother of all relief rallies.
Meanwhile the Arctic is 50 degrees above normal.
The next crisis is just around the corner, and it’s going to make this one look very small.
