The chief theme of my working life has been the pace of change accelerating, under Moore’s Law.
We’ve all had to get used to it, but until this decade economists didn’t.
Now they must.
The pandemic has shown just how quickly economic behavior can change, and how inadequate our tools are for adjusting to it.
Just since the start of 2021, we’ve seen a tech-driven work-from-home economy replaced by a great reopening, followed by huge demand for goods, then workers, and now a giant stop sign as markets have saturated. But fears of recession may be overdone as services are replacing goods in the family shopping cart.
I’m headed out for vacation Saturday, and I expect to see high prices everywhere. Even secondary tourist traps will be mobbed this Memorial Day weekend. Rooms will be hard to find and expensive. Restaurant meals will be pricey. Even with my new hybrid I’ll be paying bigly for gas. I don’t mind only because I haven’t been outside this house in almost 3 years and I’m going crazy.
Regulators can’t adjust to the changing economy fast enough. Markets went from needing stimulus to needing the punch bowl taken away. Now they’re signaling recession, even while the Fed reacts to data from a few months ago.
Most of this isn’t really happening. What is really happening is we’re trying to go back to something resembling normal, while keeping the good that came out of the pandemic. No more suits, fewer commutes, leftovers for lunch instead of sandwiches and $5 coffee. Those are enormous savings, which many managers resist, although for the life of me I don’t know why.
Markets are now approaching pre-pandemic levels, but we have grown and changed since then. When we go to malls it’s for nostalgia and entertainment, not because we need stuff. We’re moderating our use of delivery services, but they’re not going away. These, too, have cut costs, rearranging cities. More warehouses, offices turning into condos, malls becoming live-work communities. These are opportunities. Most of our problems are.
That’s just here. Everywhere else there’s trouble. There’s war in Europe, there are threats of it in Asia, there is starvation in Africa and violence across Latin America. I can’t think of anyplace in the world I’d rather be right now, save perhaps New Zealand. Think for a moment about why. It’s because so little seems to be happening there.
That’s not how the media or the markets, the politicians, or the regulators, or even we see it. We’re constantly told that the glass is half-empty because that generates clicks and outrage our media knows how to monetize. We’re kept in a murderous froth because that keeps the powerful in charge of us.
The answer is to relax. With your money, look ahead 3 years, live frugally, and don’t panic. With your family and community, focus on what you can do for others, not what you can do for yourself.
Changes will happen. Many will be good. As to the rest, we’re the people who can change it. Exhale, inhale, register, vote, think, help, write. Relax.
