The Straight Ticket Election

Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act was the final act of political policy season. It was the opening of campaign season.

Midterms are usually a verdict on the President, a simple game of inside vs. outside. That’s not true this time. Both parties have done things and it makes both parties incumbents. Republicans hold most state houses and the courts. Democrats hold the Presidency and the Congress. It’s finely balanced.

Both parties are also more united than at any time in American history. There once were liberal Republicans. There once were conservative Democrats. This is a straight ticket election.

For history majors, what’s interesting is how the ideologies line up. The GOP has become an alliance between nativists and Wall Street oligarchs. Democrats are running with a platform either Theodore or Franklin Roosevelt would endorse.

Republicans have returned to the isolationist policies of the 1930s. Democrats are the war party. There are echoes of the Civil War. I call it the Cold Civil War. The difference is that every rural county is confederate, nearly every city for the union. That’s how the money lines up, too. It’s with creativity now, not with production. Just as it was with manufacturing then, not raw materials.

For all the billions that will be spent on campaigns, I don’t see minds being changed. The results are baked-in. You’re either for abortion rights or you’re not. You’re either for gun rights or you’re not. You’re either pro-democracy or you’re not (unless you win). You either see the environment or the economy as a top priority. There is no common ground.

My spidey-sense feels good about it. If everyone registers, if everyone votes, if all the votes are counted and reported fairly, most people will be satisfied with the outcome.

But even that is far from certain.

That’s what’s scariest of all.