Here is what 45 years of studying business cycles has taught me.
Now is the time to work on your next great startup.
Right now. When the whole world is collapsing around us. When old business models are failing. When everyone is worried about their job, or about to lose it.
Look at the opportunities. I detailed them three years ago. The end of oil. The machine Internet. DNA as a programming language.
These boil down to renewable energy, control systems, and medicine.
If your neighborhood is behind the technology curve, it’s also a good time to implement winning ideas from the last decade. Automate supply chains and sales processes. Replace people with software. Help people, using software, to do things they couldn’t afford before.
Scale a wind project used for powering mobile phones so it can power bicycles and scooters. Become the Uber of a new electric scooter fleet. Look at how restaurants get their supplies and get them there for less. Then expand into other industries.
There are cloud tools that can put people to work, and there are cloud tools that can put people out of work. Be a toolmaker.
Whatever you do, make it simple for people. Look at everything people want, whether it’s spending or saving, and make it easier for them.
Now is a great time to listen. Listen to customers, listen to competitors, listen to investors. They will tell you what they want. Boil that down to something simple, something you can do with the resources at hand. Then you can talk.
This is how the Internet revolution started in the 1990s. It’s how the mobility revolution started in the 2000s. It’s how the cloud revolution developed in the 2010s. Each one built on what came before. Networks in the 1980s. Touchscreens in the 1990s. Open source in the 2000s. That’s what makes it possible to look around corners, seeing what’s available and what’s wanted.
My hunch is that scaling and distributing new renewable technology is low-hanging fruit. I think systems that run automatically can be developed off cheap chips and open source software. I think software can organize medical care in new ways, so lives can be extended for billions.
When the smoke clears, you’ll be ready. Like Internet entrepreneurs were ready 30 years ago, mobility providers were 20 years ago, and cloud (in the form of software as a service) was a decade ago.
