I’ve been a bicyclist my whole life. My present one dates from 1981, and it works great. (Here it is in Centennial Olympic Park last year.)
I know most people aren’t me. Bicycling remains a niche activity. Bike lanes are rare because there is little demand. Rail lines scale, but they’re inflexible. Cars offer comfort, but roads don’t scale. The urban environment is little changed from when I came to Atlanta in 1981.
I’m getting older. At 67, the heart rate needed to maintain a good speed for a half hour is near my limit. All I’m good for at the end of 10 miles today is a nap.
But electric bikes are a game changer. I finally bought one this week, a Lectric 3.0. It unfolded from its box in about an hour and took no tools to set up. The battery runs 20-40 miles between charges, for which you use a 3-prong wall plug and a power supply just like your old laptop. Anyone can get it to go 10 mph, even over hills. You can buy a passenger seat or grocery baskets.
In practical terms, this increases your “walkable” travel range from 1.5 miles to 5. That’s how far you can go in a half hour without breaking a heavy sweat. It also lets you do more at the other end of the journey. You can get a week’s worth of groceries. You can go into your job without taking a shower first.
In a Sunbelt city like Atlanta, this is a revolution. I’m 5 miles from downtown. I can now get there without MARTA. I’m 3 miles from all my favorite grocery stores. We’re 3 miles from where my son now works.
Right now, fewer than 1% of people bicycle regularly, and most do it just for recreation. With electric bikes I can see 20% on two wheels within 5 years. It costs less, it’s more convenient, it’s easier to find parking. My estimate may prove low.
There are times when we’ll still drive. If I want to eat across town, I’ll drive. I’ll take the car to other cities, to meetings, to distant parks. But if you’re within 5 miles of most things you need to do, your need for a big car sitting idle 23 hours per day, at $500-$1,000 per month, is limited.
This means massive changes are in store for urban design. There will be demand for bike paths now, which means they can be built. Suburbs will get centers, with offices and shopping, within easy reach of most residents without cars. I’m already seeing people my age buzzing around town, some with helmets and some without, on electric bikes.
The Lectric itself is a huge change. The retail price was $1,000. The alternatives sold in bike shops are $2,500-4,000. The Lectric is sold exclusively online, shipped from a central location, and requires no help in the set-up. I can charge it in the living room. Existing bike shops can handle most repairs, although those which think they’re going to grow with sales may be disappointed.
The last major change in urban design was the expressway, 75 years ago which made it possible for people to live 20-30 miles from home, but isolated them within suburbs where your distance to shopping, schools, or the office required a car. Our cities are built today only with cars in mind.
As electric bike use grows, this is going to change organically. It will change because of demand, not the demands of activists but market demand. You’re already seeing this in Europe. You’ll see it here too.
