Since long before the streaming crash began, I predicted its Big Three would end up being Apple, Google, and Amazon.Com.
Not Netflix. Not Disney. Not Comcast or Paramount or Warner Brothers.
The Cloud Czars.
As usual, I was early to the story. But it has long been clear that, when push comes to shove in streaming, money talks. The coming result was easy for me to see and the story was easy to do.
Of the three Cloud Czars, Amazon is the best-positioned. They have the front-end technology with the Fire Stick, which has one-third of the U.S. market. They have Prime Video, which becomes a huge value if you use the Amazon store. They can re-sell every other streamer’s stuff and make money. They’re also global, something only Netflix and Disney among their competitors can lay claim to.
Even with the disaster that is named Andy Jassy, Amazon is still a trillion-dollar company. That’s five times more than Disney is worth, six times Netflix or Comcast, and don’t get me started on the others.
This means that when Netflix, Disney, Comcast, Warner Brothers and Paramount play the game of squeezing down content and raising prices, Amazon gets stronger. The only way to change the equation is for one, or more, of these weaker players to get bought by Apple. Or for Google to get its head out of its ass.
Cloud matters because cloud has global scale and is bought with cash flow, not debt. It’s like having a cable franchise or broadcasting license that extends to everyone around the world, all at once. Only China can challenge it. But its Cloud Emperors are just a fraction of Amazon’s size, and all are now compromised by their government. The power of every other government against the Czars is limited, because connectivity provides such a huge benefit that, once taken away, is noticed quickly.
It amazes me that the business press hasn’t caught on to this. But money talks. Its sound is only going to grow louder over the next few years.
We’ll wake up to find fewer players with more control over what we see.
