This country, with its institutions, belongs to the people who inhabit it. Whenever they shall grow weary of the existing Government, they can exercise their constitutional right of amending it or their revolutionary right to dismember or overthrow it.
A political campaign can start only after policies are implemented.
In 2023, a lot of things are about to happen that will have profound impacts on how people vote next year.
- Ukraine is coming for Russia. We’ll know a lot more about that by fall.
- Jack Smith is coming for Trump. We’ll know a lot more about that by fall.
- Gun, abortion, and education policies are being implemented by states and we’ll know a whole lot more about their effect by fall.
I haven’t even mentioned the weather, which will show in no uncertain terms just how damaging our reliance on fossil fuels has become. Droughts and hurricanes will wreak terrible havoc on the whole planet this summer, and on Americans too.
What matters for democracy more than polls is voter registration. There’s a huge disconnect right now between voters and the population. Voters are whiter and older. Efforts to change that are underway. Their success will determine results next year.
I don’t think voters are going to learn much from the media about this. American media has become like the British media – the personal property of a few oligarchs, nearly all of them right-wing. But the British people are waking up as well if you look at recent election results. Americans are fully capable of doing the same.
The proof of any policy pudding is in the eating. It’s the results of policy, and how the public feels about those results, that drive change. There’s always a lag. And when those in the minority are determined to prevent change, the lag is longer. But the lag isn’t infinite.
A lot of people are talking about fascism being both imminent and infinite. We can argue about the first. The second is something I don’t want to hear about. Because politics continues even in fascist states. Tyrants are overthrown all the time. Revolutions are democracy in the absence of voting.
It’s only when people have their backs against the wall that they realize this. It was only after Russia invaded Ukraine for the second time that its people united, under democratic leaders. It was only after the second invasion that Europe began uniting against it.
No matter how restrictive the system, its leaders are always subject to the actions of their people. Xi Jinping absolutely refused to lift China’s COVID restrictions. Then, under political pressure, he did. Apartheid was impregnable until it wasn’t. South America was ruled by its militaries until it wasn’t.
Americans don’t have to go as far as these people did to effect change. Just see the results of bad policies and act against them. Given the determination of those on the other side this will be a long and severe struggle. But anyone who thinks it won’t be won knows nothing.
