A few thoughts from an armchair technology analyst follow.
War has utterly changed in this decade. Individuals and smaller groups are gaining power. Nations are losing it. Genocide has become a strategy.
Thanks to technology, the Ukraine War has devolved from one fought by people in tanks to one fought by people behind screens.
Suicide drones, piloted by men wearing VR headsets, have turned the tide in the Black Sea, and have struck Russian supply lines deep inside occupied Ukraine. These are far more effective than any armor or artillery piece. They’re more accurate.
At the same time, the concept of a “front line” has disappeared. Ukraine strikes deep inside Russia, and Russia can strike everywhere in Ukraine. Skylink is creating unbreakable Internet connections, and Amazon’s Project Kuiper will also go online, strengthening the link. Russia is being ground down slowly. The end when it comes will come quickly, and it will happen in Moscow.
In Israel, avoiding technology makes small groups more powerful. Israel has complete control of its information sphere, so Hamas avoids it, its conspiracy created by word of mouth. This is only possible if everyone involved is completely committed. But we’ve seen it can be done. Conspiracies are more powerful than ever. If everyone is committed, even great nations are helpless, as we saw in Afghanistan.
What Ukraine began is becoming a global war between Russia and the west. The war isn’t just happening in Ukraine. It’s happening in Africa, it’s happening in Europe, and it’s even happening here, where Russian surrogates now have enormous influence within the Republican Party. Putin is taking advantage of freedom to destroy it, and the fight is now existential. Only one side can win.
Offensive operations start with the ability to exert control over the battlefield using the Internet. Wars also start before the shooting does, with an understanding that whole nations are now battlefields, that public opinion (on both sides) can’t be taken for granted, and that small groups committed to the other side of the fight can have enormous impact.
This needs to be reflected in how the U.S. operates. We need fewer people fighting, more people engaged in triage and recovery. We need more outreach to the better angels of our nature, because the best way to fight propaganda is with action.
The crisis of our time is happening now. Unless the better angels triumph, the winners will be the cockroaches.
