We know that cars don’t scale. They won’t allow construction of dense cities.
The average car is about 6 feet wide by 15 feet long. You need space on either side for the doors, and you don’t want to get too close in traffic. They take up too much room to scale development beyond the 1-2 stories of the typical suburb.
The answer is for cities to become denser, and less friendly to cars. This is already happening organically. Most younger people have small households. They live alone or with a partner, maybe a car or a dog. They don’t need a McMansion. For an individual or couple, 1,000 square feet should do.
The problem is construction technology.
It’s cheap to build a 5-6 story apartment block. It’s a cement foundation, a single story of steel for site stability, and wood frame above. Go beyond that and things get much more expensive. The steel skeleton must go higher, which dramatically increases the price per square foot. You also need more and bigger elevators.
That’s why most tall buildings are offices. A $34/square foot “Class A” office in Atlanta currently costs $2,800/month for 1,000 square feet. For a “Class C” building, we’re talking $1,800 per month for 1,000 square feet. That’s before any conversion takes place.
Ironically, the “housing shortage” we love to complain about is bringing rents high enough to justify office space conversions. The two problems can result in one solution.
The Wealthy Core
If we can increase density cars will become unaffordable because of the cost of space. People still waste most of the space in their car when going anywhere. Most cars spend 90% of the time sitting in driveways. Reducing the amount of time a car spends on the road doesn’t mean it doesn’t need a parking place and doesn’t mean you’re not going to want a clear road for those trips you are making.
Here, too, there’s a solution. Bring commercial, residential, and “office” zoning together. Most trips we take are under 3 miles. We usually have 1-2 people in the car.
We like to call dense cities hellscapes, but they’re not. Spreading out has increased crime rates. Little Rock is more dangerous than New York.
Solutions are possible. Density is possible if living in a dense city offers a better quality of life than living in an uncrowded exurb. That’s the demographic change cities like Atlanta have yet to confront. As the math shows, affordable housing close to a dense city center costs too much to build. To be viable, 21st century cities need an upper-income majority. Those who can’t afford to be in the core will find places in suburbs, which is where we need to put public transportation.
I think cities like Atlanta understand the problem, but the solutions are going to be politically difficult. Politicians who serve the upper-middle class today are suburban, even exurban. Those in the core tend to serve the lower-middle class.
Reverse it.
