Elon Musk insists he’s going to deliver Full Self-Driving, with help from China’s Baidu. The stock is rising as a result.
He won’t. He can’t. Although maybe Baidu can.
The reason should be clear to any American. While self-driving software can adapt to rational changes in the driving environment, it has a tough time with the irrational ones. American roads are full of them.
Speeding. Running red lights. Cutting across multiple lanes of traffic. Road rage. Jaywalking.
These are all violations of the traffic laws. But traffic laws are not enforced in the U.S. How can I say that? While 18-22 states allow red light or speeding cameras, 8-9 have laws explicitly outlawing them.
The only way to get people to uniformly obey traffic laws is to automate enforcement, in the same way self-driving purports to work, with cameras and software. Chinese governments, by contrast, brought in $47.1 billion from automated traffic fines in 2020. This has now been expanded to crack down on jaywalking.
Self-driving and automated law enforcement must go hand in hand for self-driving software to be practical. If you see red light cameras as “big brother,” intrusions on “your rights,” then you’ll never accept self-driving. It won’t happen.
The irony. The only way Musk can get what he wants is with an intrusive, automated, self-enforcing traffic system. As with Electric Vehicles (EVs) themselves, it’s the voters whose interests Musk opposes who are his natural supporters. And vice versa.
Investors take note.
