One of the great mysteries of 2024 is why the markets continue to rise going into the November 5 election.
It doesn’t seem logical. Both candidates are telling voters to fear a future in which the other side wins. Yet business remains sanguine, the markets steady.
The reason is simple, and since no network analyst will tell you why, I will.
The likeliest result is a Kamala Harris win, with the Senate going to Republicans. This would give the GOP veto over cabinet appointments and judges, not just her legislative program. Stalemate, however, would be fine for the markets. Things are good. Change is uncertain. Change is not in the interest of current markets.
The second likeliest result is a Trump win, but here too the markets believe they have a veto. Despite what the candidate says, business believes, Congress and courts still have a say. Every lobbyist would belly up to the trough of government, those most closely connected would get the most, but Republicans can’t hate markets, it’s not in their nature.
The least likely result is a Democratic sweep. But even that is unlikely to produce major change. Maybe the independent wins in Nebraska. Maybe Tester slips through. Harris would still have to negotiate with Congress, and markets don’t believe she’s as good at that as Biden was. Even if she is, Biden’s program worked out great for business.
This leaves me with a rhetorical question. If business and markets aren’t worried about November 5, why are the rest of us freaking out?
Get out and vote. November 6 will be another day.
