Wars are unhealthy for economies and other living things.
Peace, even an uneasy peace, is healthier for the economy. This includes trade peace.
The old order of good vs. evil has fallen, since Americans chose evil.
This offers opportunities for a world defined by spheres of influence. America would dominate the western hemisphere, China the east. Europe would have to fend for itself.
It wouldn’t be quite that simple, but trade barriers need to come down, not go up. Tariffs can easily be made reciprocal, which is what happened with Smoot Hawley. Informal trade barriers can be as important as formal ones, which is why American tech companies can’t do business in China.
Fact is there’s a more important, hotter war going on beyond the fight for commercial or strategic advantage that defines international conflict. Climate has become weather, and it respects no boundaries. This hurricane season was the worst yet, and it’s only going to get worse. The Pacific season was only the 5th worst on record. Drought is growing worse and Atlanta would be in one now except for Hurricane Helene. Global temperatures are up about 1.5 degrees just since I moved to Atlanta, and the rate of change is accelerating.
Cold War Comfort
A Cold War is not peace. There are still proxy wars, there is still violence. But there are no direct confrontations, no nuclear exchanges. There is contact among the powers. There is trade, and a pantomime of diplomacy that can yield small results.
Trump 2.0, the Rise of Elon, offers opportunities to reset the global balance of power along these lines. Elon knows it’s in his financial interest to have such a reset. It would be expensive for him to be kicked out of China, and for his tech services to be denied access.
Tariffs can be held up while negotiations continue. Everything can be on the table, including Ukraine, because Americans chose to abandon it.
Such agreements would have a minimal peace dividend, however. Military sponsored technology is a proven key to growth. It put a Man on the Moon and created the Internet. Palantir doesn’t want to go broke. China is finding this to be the case as well. Europe needs to follow, making Ukraine or Ukrainians (depending on how much Elon is willing to give up) their arsenal of democracy, followed quickly by the end of NATO.
Spitballing here, we could see Chinese green tech slowing the Earth’s temperature rise, and American AI leading to further efficiencies. It wouldn’t be peace, we would still be in a Cold War, but an acknowledgement on both sides of the other sides’ strengths might allow some focus on the bigger battle that’s here for our children.
That’s the best we can hope for this holiday season, and we need to hope very hard.
